Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector

This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.

Provides a theoretical ground for a novel approach that aims at solving the problem of improving the performance of long-term projections for the Energy Sector in an emerging world Shows in a visually engaging way the non-linear growth of uncertainty inherent in fuel and energy consumption projections published in the USA, OECD member countries, and Russia Discusses the evolution undergone over the last decades by long-term forecasting methods as applied to the Energy Sector development and price and demand dynamics

Autorentext
Yuri D. Kononov - Doctor of Economics, Professor, Meritorious Scientist of the Russian Federation, Chief Researcher at the Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. His fields of research are modeling of energy and economy interactions as well as the methods aimed at enhancing the validity of long-term projections of the energy industry development. He has 254 research publications to his credit (including the authorship and co-authorship of 16 research monographs).

Inhalt
The effects of the forecasting time frame on forecast performance and forecast performance requirements.- Further development of the long-term forecasting methodology for the energy sector.- Methods of projecting price and demand for energy commodities.- Assessment and factoring in of conditions and barriers that limit the projection range of the prospective development of the engery sector.- Quantitative assessment of strategic threats and energy security indicatiors.