PUBLIC OPINION, SECURITY THREATS, AND FOREIGN POLICY FORMATION

This analysis focuses on the domestic factors, such
as public opinion, and international factors, such as
security threats, which affect foreign policy
outputs. Much research has suggested that
governments foreign policy outputs are responsive to
public opinion in advanced democratic countries.
Using the cases of Germany and several US Western
allies, I offer a theory of the effect of public
opinion on foreign policy. I employ several
statistical and cross-sectional time series analyses
as well as process tracing to test the theory and the
generalizability of the hypothesis of an
opinion-foreign policy nexus. I find that the
predicted effect of public opinion on foreign policy
outputs to be confounded by such factors as security
threats. I conclude that a divergence between the
threat perception of leaders and of the public is
likely to result in a lack of congruence between
public opinion and a state s foreign policy outputs.
Convergence between leaders and public opinion among
US allies in post-Cold War period and particularly in
Germany may have necessitated a reassessment of the
longstanding foreign policy relationship with the US.

Autorentext
William Davis is a faculty member in the Government and ForeignAffairs department at Walsh University in the US. He receiveda BA degree from the University of the State of New York, aMaster's degree from Harvard University in Government, a Master'sand Ph.D. degrees in Political Science from the Florida StateUniversity.

Klappentext
This analysis focuses on the domestic factors, suchas public opinion, and international factors, such assecurity threats, which affect foreign policyoutputs. Much research has suggested thatgovernments' foreign policy outputs are responsive topublic opinion in advanced democratic countries. Using the cases of Germany and several US Westernallies, I offer a theory of the effect of publicopinion on foreign policy. I employ severalstatistical and cross-sectional time series analysesas well as process tracing to test the theory and thegeneralizability of the hypothesis of anopinion-foreign policy nexus. I find that thepredicted effect of public opinion on foreign policyoutputs to be confounded by such factors as securitythreats. I conclude that a divergence between thethreat perception of leaders and of the public islikely to result in a lack of congruence betweenpublic opinion and a state's foreign policy outputs. Convergence between leaders and public opinion amongUS allies in post-Cold War period and particularly inGermany may have necessitated a reassessment of thelongstanding foreign policy relationship with the US.