Escaping from Bad Decisions

Escaping from Bad Decisions presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. By interpreting ordinal utility theory as normative analysis examined in view of rationality, it shows how decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty can be better understood. It provides a critical examination of psychological models in multi-attribute decision-making, and evaluates the constitutive elements of "good" and "bad" decisions. Multi-attribute decision-making is analysed descriptively, based on the psychological model of decision-making and computer simulations of decision strategies. Finally, prescriptive examinations of multi-attribute decision-making are performed, supporting the argument that decision-making from a pluralistic perspective creates results that can help "escape" from bad decisions.

This book will be of particular interest to graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision-theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences.

Autorentext
Kazuhisa Takemura is a Professor of Psychology and Economics, and the Director of the Center for Decision Research at Waseda University in Japan. His research focuses on human judgment and decision making, especially modeling of preferential judgment and choice. He received the Hayashi Award (Distinguished Scholar) from The Behaviormetric Society in 2002, the Excellent Paper Award from the Japan Society of Kansei Engineering in 2003, the Book Award from Japanese Society of Social Psychology in 2010, the Book Award from Behaviormetric Society in 2016, and the Fellow Award from International Association of Applied Psychology in 2018.

Klappentext

"Escaping from Bad Decisions: A Behavioral Decision-Theoretic Perspective presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. This framework explains how decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty can be better understood and theoretically explained, and provides a critical examination of psychological models in multi-attribute decision-making. It evaluates and defines the constitutive elements of "good decisions" and "bad decisions." By defining ordinal utility theory relating to multi-attribute decision-making, this book re-interprets the rationality of multi-attribute decision-making based on Arrow's general possibility theorem"--

Inhalt

1. Introduction: Escaping from Bad Decisions
   
   2. Formal Definitions of the Worst Decisions, Best Decisions, and Bad Decisions
   3. Rational Choice, Irrational Choice, and Bad Decisions
   4. Preference Ordering and Measurement
   5. Rational Preference, Irrational Preference, and Revealed Preference
   6. Multi-Attribute Decision-Making, Multi-Objective Optimization, and the Additive Conjoint System
   7. A Computer Simulation of Cognitive Effort and the Accuracy of Two Stage Decision Strategies in a Multi-Attribute Decision Making Process
   8. A Computer Simulation of Bad Decisions and Good Decisions: An Extended Analysis of Two Stage Decision Strategies
   9. A Process Tracing Study of Decision Strategies and Bad Decisions
   10. A Process Tracing Study of Bad Decisions: Using Eye Tracking in Food Decision Making
   11. Decision Strategies and Bad Group Decision-Making: A Group Meeting Experiment
   12. An Observational Experiment in Group Decision Making: Can People Detect Bad Group Decisions?
   13. Revisiting the Group Decision-Making Experiment
   14. The Detection of Bad Decisions and a Voting Experiment
   15. Metacognition and the Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Process
   16. The Contingent Focus Model and Bad Decisions
   17. An Experiment on, and Psyschometric Analysis of, the Contingent Focus Model
   18. The Situated Focus Model and its Relation to Other Theories
   19. The Mental Ruler Model: Qualitative and Mathematical Representations of Contingent Judgement
   20. How Attention Arises in and Influences Decision-Making
   21. Escaping from Bad Decisions and Future Perspectives