European Energy Futures 2030

This book summarizes the results of an international research project - the first Europe-wide Delphi study on future developments in the energy sector (EurEnDel). With a time horizon of 2030, this expert survey provides not only a useful perspective on long-term developments of energy technologies, but also evaluates these technologies against different sets of social values or "visions". Nearly 700 energy experts from 48 countries participated in this two-round web-based Delphi exercise. The results represent a broad European perspective on the challenges that Europe's energy system will be facing over the next two and a half decades. In the survey and in the analysis of the results, equal emphasis was placed on the technology-push perspective "What will the future be like?" and the normative social-pull perspective "What should the future be like?". In this respect, considerable attention was given to the different responses received from technology experts, generalists and decision makers.

First Europe-wide Delphi study on future developments in the energy sector (Eur. Del), covers 20 emerging technologies from all parts of the energy system ranging from energy supply, grid and storage issues, and energy demand for transportation, housing and industry

Autorentext

Timon Wehnert graduated as physicist from Berlin Technical University and gained six years of professional experience in research and consultancy on energy and environmental topics, especially on energy technology foresight and energy research policy. Presently he is working as a researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT), Berlin, Germany where he was the coordinator of the EurEnDel study on which the present book is based and which was carried out in co-operation with four other European Research Institutions.

Klappentext

The book summarizes the results of the first Europe-wide Delphi study on future developments in the energy sector. With a time horizon of 2030, this expert survey not only provides a useful perspective on long-term developments of energy technologies, but also evaluates these technologies against different sets of social values or "visions".

In the comprehensive analysis following the Delphi survey itself, special attention was given to faithfully translating the trends and needs identified by the survey participants into recommendations for R&D and energy policies. In this respect the EurEnDel findings provide a twofold contribution to the analysis of Europe's energy policies:

• They corroborate the conflicting attitudes and paradigms prevalent among energy experts, with valuable new dimensions for the on going energy debate;

• They offer genuine new insight on energy issues, with added value for decision makers.

  Inhalt
  Outline of the Report.- Methodological Approach of EurEnDel.- Main Survey Results.- Comparison of Social and Technological Perspectives.- EurEnDel Scenarios.- Policy Recommendations.- References.- Annex A Evaluation of former foresight studies.- Annex B Tables with Results from 1st and 2nd Survey Round.- Annex C Country Specific Analysis.- Annex D Correspondence Factors.- Annex E Graphs on Delphi results.- Annex F Description of Societal Visions.- Annex G Evaluation of Comments.- Annex H Statement list short term descriptions.