Explaining Pakistan's Long-Run Growth

This book explains the behaviour of output and its growth over time. It does so by deliberating over a choice among three fundamental modelsthe Samuelson-Swan-Solow neoclassical model, the Harrod-Domar model and the Keynesian modelto choose one fit for purpose. The criteria for goodness of fit are some mathematical properties of growth models. The model chosen for meeting these properties is the Keynesian model, which is a bit better on all these counts.

The chosen Keynesian model of aggregate demand has been used to explain the observed behaviour of Pakistan's long-run growth of gross domestic product (GDP). Pakistan's GDP growth over the long run between 1973 and 2019 is marked by a statistically significant hiatus at approximately 1992. Pre-1992, GDP growth on trend approximated 6 percent per annum. Post-1992, it drops on trend to approximately 4 percent per annum. Applied to the hiatus in Pakistan's GDP growth after 1992, this model shows that pre-1992, high GDP growth is explained by high investment growth, paired with a low marginal propensity to consume (MPC), while post-1992, lowered GDP growth is explained by lower investment growth paired with a higher MPC. Thus, Pakistan's higher GDP growth pre-1992 was investment-led while its lower GDP growth post-1992 has been consumption-led.

The book then traces the causality of these trends in investment and consumption to a falling trend in public investment. This is linked to an increasingly austere regulatory policy environment, while private investment fails to step in and maintain aggregate investment.

Contains policy suggestions to improve economic growth in both Pakistan and other developing countries Highlights how public investment can be balanced against fiscal deficits to produce sustainable growth Provides an empirically rigorous review of economic growth in Pakistan over the last 50 years

Autorentext

Moazam Mahmood is Professor of Economics at the Lahore School of Economics, Pakistan, and Visiting Professor at the Capital University of Economics and Business, China.

Rabia Ikram is Assistant Professor at the Lahore School of Economics, Pakistan

Inhalt

1. Conceptualising a Keynesian demand led model to explain long run growth the dance between supply and demand.- 2. The primary macro explanators of Pakistan's GDP growth over the past half century: the dance between investment and consumption.- 3. Explaining investment growth: the dance between investment and public investment.- 4. Explaining public investment growth the dance with fiscal deficits.- 5. Policy Implications dancing over deficits.