Risk Analysis in Engineering

Developed as a guide for practitioners and as a textbook for upper-level courses in risk analysis, Risk Analysis in Engineering presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It particularly emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The book requires no prior knowledge of risk analysis and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization.

Zusatztext "? this book contains the most used procedures and practices particularly in conducting probabilistic risk assessments of complex systems such nuclear power plants. One of the special feature of this gook is the inclusion of several worked out examples in the text and also a large number of exercises at the end of each chapters. This feature makes it very useful for the undergraduate! graduate students! who would like to study the subject of risk modeling! assessment and management as a part of their curricula. ? the reviewer would like to recommend this book to all those practicing engineers! students! teachers! and researchers! who would like to make in depth study of the probabilistic risk assessment and associated problems and are looking for their solutions. This is a most comprehensive treatment of the subject." - K. B. Misra! in International Journal of Performability Engineering! (IJPE)! July 2006 Klappentext Developed as a guide for practitioners and as a textbook for upper-level courses in risk analysis! Risk Analysis in Engineering presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It particularly emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies! including techniques for risk management. The book requires no prior knowledge of risk analysis and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on! but is not limited to! examples from the nuclear industry! because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach! the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization. Zusammenfassung Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization. The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication. Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike. Inhaltsverzeichnis Introduction and Definitions. Elements of Risk Assessment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Performance Assessment: Data and Modeling. Uncertainty Analysis. Identifying, Ranking, and Predicting Contributors to Risk. Risk Acceptance Criteria. Decision Making Techniqu...

Autorentext

Mohammad Modarres

Klappentext

Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization. The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication. Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.

Zusammenfassung
Presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). This work emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management.

Inhalt
Introduction and Definitions. Elements of Risk Assessment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Performance Assessment: Data and Modeling. Uncertainty Analysis. Identifying, Ranking, and Predicting Contributors to Risk. Risk Acceptance Criteria. Decision Making Techniques. Risk Communication.