A Stochastic Approach For the Determination of Share Prices

Investments in share market have attractive returns, but at the same time it involves hidden risk factors. Hence one has to think properly before investing (or) purchasing a company share. A well experienced investor can predict the prosperity of a share based on the company's past history, fiscal policies of the Government, investment patterns in the past and in the future. This type of prediction is not a scientific one and often may go wrong because the decision taken is based on the past experience of the investor, but not done using scientific methods of predictions. Scientific predictions are also based on collection of the past data and analysis of the same through sophisticated techniques. Here also, there is a possibility of the decisions failing but the chances are very remote say 5% (or) 1% (or) still less, based on the techniques used. In this connection it is worth to mention that use of more recent Statistical techniques is very useful and helpful to take appropriate decisions by a common investor.

Autorentext

Dr.K V Narasimha Murthy, M.Sc. (Statistics) in S V University, Tirupati, M.Sc. (Mathematics) in University of Madras and got PhD in Statistics in S K University, Anantapur. He has 12 years of teaching experience in Probability & Statistics, O.R. & Mathematical Methods. Now he is working as Associate Professor in Mathematics in MITS, Madanapalle