A Theory of Uncertainty

Using sources from classical to modern that broach the phenomenon of uncertainty and its relation to risk, this book creates a novel approach to the recognized but theoretically often unattended issue of uncertainty.

Autorentext

Andreas Klinke is a political scientist and sociologist. He is Full Professor and the Director of the Environmental Policy Institute (EPI) at Memorial University of Newfoundland in Canada. In addition, he is an external member of the Center for International Development and Environmental Research at the University of Giessen in Germany. Prior to that, he worked at the ETH-domain in Zurich, Switzerland, at King's College in London, as well as at the University of Stuttgart, the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart, and at the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) in Germany.

Inhalt

Introduction

Chapter 1

Entering Terra Incognita - A Metaphysical Approach

1.1 Natural and Social Guises of Uncertainty

1.2 Immanence and Genericity

1.3 The Fundamental Premise of a Theory of Uncertainty

1.3.1 At the Intersection of Philosophical and Social Science Disciplines

1.3.2 Determinism versus Nondeterminism

1.3.3 The Interpretive Structure and Dependence of Uncertainty

Chapter 2

Ontological Uncertainty - World and Social Being in Disarray

2.1 Constitutive and Differential Potential

2.2 Holding Sway over Social Being

2.3 Freedom and Self-Determination

2.4 Cosmopolitan Ontology

Excursus I

Homo Homini Lupus Est - War, Terrorism, and Collective Violence

Chapter 3

Epistemological Uncertainty - What We Know and Don't Know about Non-Knowing

3.1 Evidentiality and Reliability

3.2 Knowable and Unknowable

3.3 Techno-Scientific Paradigm of Uncertainty

3.4 Discursive Epistemology

3.4.1 Social Epistemology and Non-Knowing

3.4.2 Epistemology of Epistemological Uncertainty

3.5 Collective Agents of Knowledge and Epistemic Communities

3.5.1 The Becoming Common of Distributed Cognitive Labor

3.5.2 Relativism, Relative Truth, and Disagreement

3.5.3 Influence of Power

Excursus II

The Orwellian "Doublethink" of Post-Facticity

Chapter 4

Linguistic-Communicative Uncertainty - The Twilight Zone of Language, Communication, and Discourse

4.1 Linguistic Turns: Becoming Aware of Linguistic-Communicative Uncertainty

4.2 Obscurity in Semantics: Meaning, Sense, and Reference

4.2.1 Semantic Analysis

4.2.2 Functional Validity Claims (in Semantics)

4.3 Confusion through Linguistic Interpretation and Hermeneutical Conundrums

4.4 Imponderabilia of Discourse and Communicative Rationality

4.5 Anomalies of Linguistic-Communicative Uncertainty Revisited

4.5.1 Lexical Vagueness and Ambiguity of Terms and Phrases

4.5.2 Illogical Syntax and Compositionality

4.5.3 Unclear and Obscure Referencing

4.5.4 Delusive Contextualization

4.5.5 Inadequate Linguistic Attitude and Intentionality

4.5.6 Equivocal Interpretation

4.5.7 Discursive Imponderability

Excursus III

Speaking out of Turn - The Viral Linguistic Power of Social Media

Chapter 5

Teleological Uncertainty - Journey into an Uncertain Future

5.1 World in Process and Transition

5.1.1 Uncertainty in Process

5.1.2 The Coming About of Teleological Uncertainty

5.2 Art and Science of Prescience

5.2.1 Systematic Approaches to the Future

5.2.2 A Vein of Modalism, Abstractionism, and Possibilism

5.3 Logic of Teleological Uncertainty in Forward-Looking Constructions

5.3.1 Conjecturing Teleological Uncertainty and Contingent Future

5.3.2 Reasoning, Inference, and Plausibility

5.3.3 Multifarious Logic of Teleological Uncertainty

5.3.4 The Role of Intuition

5.3.5 Uncertain Encounters with Bifurcations, Tipping Points, and Points of No Return

Excursus IV

Ides of March - Rare Contretemps, Upheavals, and Radical Transformations

Chapter 6

Epilogue - Societal Domestication of Uncertainty

6.1 Philosophication and Scientification of Uncertainty

6.2 Rational Politicization of Uncertainty

6.3 Postnormal Democratization of Uncertainty

6.3.1 Mediatory Public Sphere

6.3.2 Epistemic Authority

6.3.3 Associational Authority

6.3.4 General Public Authority

6.3.5 Résumé

Bibliography

Index