An Integrated Model of Transport and Urban Evolution

Gone are the days when mobility was nearly always a question of having a vehicle. Today the issue of road capacity is becoming ever more pressing. Even the safest, most comfortable and 100% emissions-free vehicle is only of limited use if it is stuck in a traffic jam. Mobility is a key human need and an important factor in the economy. It is a matter of logic that a com pany like DaimlerChrysler should make every endeavor to safeguard mo bility, thereby fulfilling humanity's economic, social and environmental needs. Nonetheless, traffic and mobility problems are the inevitable result of a concentration of people and markets. Bombay, Lagos, Shanghai, Jakarta, Sao Paulo, Cairo, Mexico City - virtually half of the world's population is urban-based, and the majority live in the metropolitan regions of the Third World. The mega-cities in the so-called developing nations are facing a dramatic increase in traffic levels. Gridlock looms on the horizon. Should traffic-choked streets become a permanent and daily occurrence, economic development will be held in check and pollution will spiral.

Presents the characteristics of the interrelated dynamics of the traffic system and the regional settlement structure of developing metropoles as well as a mathematical model which is able to capture the interrelated dynamics of traffic and settlement evolution and its application to a fast developing metropole of an emerging nation. Illustrations present in quantitative terms the evolution of traffic and city.

Klappentext

The central aim of this book is the presentation and application of a mathematical model designed to capture the interrelated dynamics of traffics and settlement structure in developing urban regions. Evidently metropoles of emerging nations are the most prominent cases of rapidly evolving regions systems. Therefore the former capital of China, Nanjing with its traffic system was elected as a highly interesting example to which the integrated transport and evolution model could be applied. The Chinese cooperators of this investigation provided data about the population and traffic structure of Nanjing, thus enabled model-based scenarios and forecasts of the further evolution of this metropolitan region. The first part of the book presents a survey about modern China in a state of flux, and how Nanjing participates in this fast evolution.

Inhalt
I Introduction into the Economic and Traffic Situation of China in General and of Nanjing in Particular.- 1. Introduction.- 2. China in a State of Flux.- 3. Nanjing City and Greater Nanjing.- 4. Traffic Development in China (especially within the Region of Nanjing).- II Description of the Model and of the Adaptation to the Available Data.- 5. The Integrated Transport and Evolution Model.- 6. The Data Situation of Nanjing.- 7. Adaptation of ITEM to the Specific Data Situation of Nanjing.- III Presentation of the Scenarios, Results of the Calculations, Conclusions and Recommendations.- 8. Methodology (Analysis and Forecasting) of the Traffic and Urban/Regional Situation of Nanjing City.- 9. Analysis of the Transport System and of the Population Development.- 10. Forecasting of the Traffic and Urban/Regional Development of Nanjing City for Different Scenarios.- 11. Summary and Recommendations.- Appendices Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model, Figures of the Results.- A1 Details of the Integrated Transport and Evolution Model.- A1.1 The Micro Level.- A1.2 The Macro Level.- A1.3 Interactions between the Micro Level and the Macro Level.- A1.4 The Stochastic Framework of the ITEM Model.- A2 Maps of the Urban Area, Nanjing City and Greater Nanjing.- A3 General Figures.- A4 Figures of the Scenarios.- References.- List of Senior Advisors Contributors and Cooperating Partners.