Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes: cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for test driving decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and what-if simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.

Offers an innovative method to improve critical decision-making in organizations Features realistic example test drives of critical problems of broad interest to businesses Features two instructional videos online Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Autorentext

Richard M. Adler is Founder and President of DecisionPath (USA), where he creates advanced decision support solutions for diverse problems including competitive marketing, counter-terrorism strategy, and enabling organizational change. He has more than three decades of experience building software tools and applications to automate and improve business operations and critical decision-making. Richard has published on topics including intelligent and distributed systems, simulation, homeland security, and knowledge management.

Inhalt
Chapter 1. Critical decisions.- Chapter 2. The Law of Unintended Consequences (LUC).- Chapter 3. Psychology of Critical Decision-Making.- Chapter 4. Rational Decision-Making.- Chapter 5. Defending Your Critical DecisionsAgainst You.- Chapter 6. BI, Analytics, and Their Discontents.- Chapter 7. Tools of the Decision Support Trade.- Chapter 8. Test Drive Your Critical Decisions.- Chapter 9. Competitive Marketing Strategy.- Chapter 10. Disruptive Growth.- Chapter 11. Managing Enterprise Risk.- Chapter 12. Enabling Organizational Change.- Chapter 13. Pragmatics.- Chapter 14. Conclusions.