China's Impossible Trinity

This book highlights the difficult policy choice that must ultimately be made during China's structural reform according to the theory of the Impossible Trinity, between exchange rate and monetary policy autonomy.

"In this new book, like in his previous works, Chi gives a prescient analysis of the major challenges facing China's economy, such as interest rate reform, capital account liberalization and monetary policy evolution in the coming decades. Is all of this 'Mission Impossible'? Chi's research into the Impossible Trinity adds new insight into an emerging economy making tough decisions without creating risks on the global stage.'

• David M. Nesbitt, Director, Business and Trust Operations, Legacy Trust Company Ltd., Hong Kong

'Chi Lo not only skilfully unpacks the economic dilemmas facing Chinese policy makers, but also shows how technical economic considerations interact with the hardnosed business of building (and breaking) political alliances and maintaining regime legitimacy. The result is a system where there are strong political incentives at the local level to pursue policies that make it harder to undertake the fundamental further economic reforms that Chi thinks are essential for ensuring China's long term economic health.'

• Shaun Breslin, Professor of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick

'Chi Lo's insightful Impossible Trinity concerns critical economic policy choices for China that are inevitable. Each option carries profound and long-ranging consequences for China and the world at large. Doing nothing is not a wise option, because it risks a macroeconomic accident of global proportions. A thought provoking read.'

• Jan Lee, Australian Government economist & retired Goldman Sachs investment banker

  Autorentext
  Chi Lo is a senior economist with a multi-national bank based in Hong Kong. He was enlisted as a member of the International Who's Who Professionals in 2000 and 2011. He has extensive international research experience in economics, financial markets and public policy and standards development, covering North American and Asian economies. His other major appointments include Greater China Research Director at HSBC, Chief Economist (Northeast Asia) at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong and Economic Advisor at the federal deposit insurance agency under the Canadian Government Department of Finance in Ottawa, Canada. He had also worked at blue chip investment banks and regulatory bodies in Canada, the UK and Asia.

  Inhalt

  1. Impossible Trinity in China
  2. Opening a Can of Worms
  3. Betting on the Role of the State
  4. Incentive Problem Standing in the Way
  5. Power Struggle or Genuine Reform
  6. From Financial Repression to Liberalisation
  7. Monetary Policy Reform Fraught with Risks
  8. Systemic Risk (I): Shadow Banks and Local Debt
  9. Systemic Risk (II): Property Market Bubble
     10 . China ' 's Future Monetary Policy