China's Macroeconomic Outlook

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China's economic growth and macroeconomic policy. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major macroeconomic variables. Since July 2006, twenty-four quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleven annual reports have been published.This 25th quarterly report was presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 25, 2018. This conference was jointly held by SOAS London University, Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily in London, UK.

Provides a comprehensive overview of China's economic performance Reports the projection of China's major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters Illustrates the simulation results about the effects of policy on the Chinese economy Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2018

Inhalt
Chapter 1 China's Economic Performance in the First Half of 2018.- Chapter 2 Quarterly Forecast for 2018-19.- Chapter 3 Policy Simulation: Effects of Changes in the Household Debt Ratio on China's GDP Growth.- Chapter 4 Policy Implications and Suggestions.