Forecasting electricity consumption with SARMAX Models

Forecasting electricity demand is a very important task for the agents of the Electricity Generation and Distribution Sectors. In this study we present a theoritical background about Brazil's Power Sector Conjuncture and also a review of Quantitative Methods used to estimate electricity consumption around the world. It is estimated a SARMAX model to the three main electricity consumption sectors with mensal data from January 2003 to September 2010.

Autorentext

Fernando Moura has obtained his Msc. degree in Business Administration in 2011. Since than he has worked in different projects in Business Research at FIA/ProCED in Brazil. He is author of articles published in journals and academic conferences in the field of statistical modeling in business, consumer behavior and demand forecasting.