Hidden Markov Models in Finance

A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions to a whole assortment of financial problems in today's globalized markets. Hidden Markov Models in Finance by Mamon and Elliott will be the first systematic application of these methods to some special kinds of financial problems; namely, pricing options and variance swaps, valuation of life insurance policies, interest rate theory, credit risk modeling, risk management, analysis of future demand and inventory level, testing foreign exchange rate hypothesis, and early warning systems for currency crises. This book provides researchers and practitioners with analyses that allow them to sort through the random "noise" of financial markets (i.e., turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic events, etc.) and analyze the fundamental components of economic markets. Hence, Hidden Markov Models in Finance provides decision makers with a clear, accurate picture of core financial components by filtering out the random noise in financial markets.

Robert J. Elliott is a distinguished research professor who has developed the area of Hidden Markov Models and Rogemar Mamon is a young researcher who is focusing his research efforts in this area. Robert Elliott has published exclusively in the area of Hidden Markov Models, and he is the author of leading books in the field Hidden Markov Models and Mathematics of Financial Markets Leading researchers have been commissioned to do chapter treatments on the following topics: Option Pricing, Interest Rate Theory, Credit Risk Modeling, Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation, Volatility Estimation, Electricity and other Commodity Pricing, and Real Options Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Inhalt
An Exact Solution of the Term Structure of Interest Rate Under Regime-Switching Risk.- The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Hidden Markov Setting.- On Fair Valuation of Participating Life Insurance Policies With Regime Switching.- Pricing Options and Variance Swaps in Markov-Modulated Brownian Markets.- Smoothed Parameter Estimation for a Hidden Markov Model of Credit Quality.- Expected Shortfall Under a Model With Market and Credit Risks.- Filtering of Hidden Weak Markov Chain -Discrete Range Observations.- Filtering of a Partially Observed Inventory System.- An empirical investigation of the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis in a regime switching market.- Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: A Regime-Switching Approach.