J.M. Keynes and the History of Probability

John Maynard Keynes is best known for his contributions to economics, yet he spent nearly two decades exploring the concept of probability. His extensive work culminated in the Treatise on Probability (1921), where he developed a unique notion of probability that continues to divide scholars regarding its relevance to economic theory.

Autorentext

Francisco Javier Aristimuño is Professor of History of Economic Thought and Statistics at the University of Rio Negro, Argentina. He earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires, focusing his research on the relationship between Keynes's concept of probability and early Enlightenment thought.

Inhalt

1. Introduction and plan of the work 2. A brief history of probability from Pascal to Keynes's time. 3. Probability theory in early Enlightenment philosophy. 4. Keynes's historical retrospect on probability 5. Keynes's theory of probability revisited in the light of the early Enlightenment 6. Keynes on induction and statistical inference 7. Probability and uncertainty in economic theory. From the Treatise to the General Theory Index