Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories

Seasoned US economist Edward Leamer argues here that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns that are the basis for his understanding of what drives the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.

This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then directing the highly regarded and widely quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast, which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that, "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.

Prof. Leamer is the director of UCLA Anderson Forecast, the leading independent forecast providing insight to Decision Makers in Business, Academia, and Government We are pattern-seeking, story-telling animals" is the motto of this refreshing and comprehensive guide to MBA students Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Inhalt
Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals.- Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates.- Gross Domestic Product.- The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X?M.- Employment.- Inflation and Interest Rates.- Extrapolative Forecasting.- A Recession Symptoms.- Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries.- Recession Comparison Charts.- Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions?.- B Recession Stories.- Idleness Stories.- Cycle Stories.- C Recession Early Warning Signs.- Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP.- More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators.- D Recession Causes.- The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data.- In Search of Recession Causes.- Expansions: With and Without Spurts.- The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts.- The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home.- Savings and Investment.- Government.- The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge?.- The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement?.