Modeling Lassa fever in an endemic population

In this book, we developed a Mathematical Model for the spread and control of Lassa Lever. The model incorporates two control parameters, the use of a condom for human-to-human human transmission via sexual contact with the opposite sex, and the use of Rodenticide to reduce both the dormant and active Rat populations. We analyze the existence and stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria. Key to our analysis is the definition of a basic reproductive number. We compiled reasonable sets of values for the parameters in the model and computed the sensitivity analysis indices around the baseline parameter value, which shows that is most sensitive to the human birth rate. According to our model analysis, the use of high efficacy condoms by a high percentage of the population reduces the rate at which Lassa fever spreads. Further, we obtained a numerical solution via a graph that illustrates the effects of the control parameters on the various compartments of the model. Finally, our bifurcation analysis reveals that the model undergoes backward bifurcation shows that keeping is not enough to put the infection under control.

Autorentext

Martins O. Onuorah tem um doutoramento em matemática aplicada com especialização em modelação de sistemas epidemiológicos, ecológicos e dinâmicos. Actualmente é professor associado no Departamento de Matemática, Escola de Matemática e Informática, Campus Principal, Kansanga. Universidade Internacional de Kampala, Uganda.