Modelling Construction Duration for Building Projects in Istanbul

Predicting contract duration of construction projects at the early stages of developments is vital since it forms the foundation for budgeting, programming, and monitoring of construction activities. To this end, the current work aimed at modelling construction duration accurately for building projects in Istanbul. In order to accomplish this goal survival analysis was applied to a data set of 146 cases. The survival analysis methodology is an innovative approach in the area of construction management and usually focuses on time to event data. Three factors significantly predicted construction duration. The first one is the adjusted project value. Furthermore, the gross ground floor area as an indicator of the size of the project had significant predictive ability. Finally, the type of building was also related to project duration. The analysis provides a formula for the estimation of construction duration. Thus, the model offers a practically applicable, convenient tool for project participants. In addition, it can be applied to benchmark the construction performance in different geographies or building subgroups.

Autorentext
Onur Dursun holds a B.Sc degree in civil engineering and two M.Sc degrees in construction management from ITU and University of Reading. Subsequently, he was awarded PhD at Stuttgart University in the domain of construction economics. Since 2014, he has been appointed as an assistant professor at Yasar University.