Net Capital Flow Variation as a Cause of Macroeconomic Instability

Conducting a theoretical analysis, a historical overview, and an empirical investigation as well in order to verify whether net capital flow variations can cause economic fragility - and crisis in the worst case scenario - on Latin American economies (Brazil, Chile, and Mexico) the present study concluded that capital flows from developed countries, or "capital exporters", to developing economies in order to try to obtain a better payoff in the potential risk versus expected rate of return relationship. Thus, the recent crises in Latin America were not a result net capital flow variations but by the fact that the capital available from International Markets was taken in order to finance consumption and not to build up a consistent economic environment, the misuse of capital did lead to an economic environments characterised by overlending policies and appreciated real exchange rates under the shadows of a weak banking system. Based on the econometric analysis results we concluded that: i. macroeconomic fragility is due to macroeconomic performance; and, ii. capital controls can be established by countries liberalizing its capital accounts as a way to protect the economy.

Autorentext

Experienced in Investments and Wealth Management on leading local and international Banks; MSc International Economics, Banking & Finance from the CARBS Cardiff University (UK, 2004); MBA in Finance from the Ibmec Business School (Brazil, 2000); BSc in Mechanical Engineering from the Engineering College of FAAP (Brazil, 1994).