Output and Employment Fluctuations

This book consists of four parts: I. Labour demand and supply, II. Productivity slowdown and innovative activity, III. Disequilibrium and business cycle analysis, and IV. Time series analysis of output and employment. It presents a fine selection of articles in the growing field ofthe empirical analysis of output and employment fluctuations with applications in a micro-econometric or a time-series framework. The time-series literature recently has emphasized the careful testing for stationarity and nonlinearity in the data, and the importance of cointegration theory. An essential part of the papers make use of parametric and non-parametric methods developed in this literature and mostly connect their results to the hysteresis discussion about the existence of fragile equilibria. A second set of macro approaches use the disequilibrium framework that has found so much interest in Europe in recent years. The other papers use newly developed methods for microdata,especially qualitative data or limited dependent variables to study microeconomic models of behaviour that explain labour market and output decisions.

Autorentext
Prof. Dr. Klaus F. Zimmermann ist Direktor des Instituts zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) und zugleich Präsident des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin).

Inhalt
Prefatory Note.- I: Labour Demand and Supply.- Demand Uncertainty and Labour Input in a Bivariate ARCH-M Model.- Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment.- The Demographics of Labour Turnover: A Comparison of Ordinal Probit and Censored Count Data Models.- II: Productivity Slowdown and Innovative Activity.- The Public Capital Hypothesis: The Case of Germany.- Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Binary Choice Models Using Panel Data: An Application to the Innovative Activity of German Firms.- III: Disequilibrium and Business Cycle Analysis.- The Importance of Rationing in International Trade: An Econometric Analysis for Germany.- Overtime Work, Lack of Labour, and Structural Mismatch: Some Extensions of the European Unemployment Programme Framework.- International Business Cycles and Long-Run Growth: An Analysis with Markov-Switching and Cointegration Methods.- IV: Time Series Analysis of Output and Employment.- Persistence and Seasonality in Output and Employment of the Federal Republic of Germany.- Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment.- On the Long-run Relationship Between Money, Output and Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis for West Germany.- Modelling Cyclical Asymmetry in a Production Series Using Threshold Autoregressive Models.- Summary of Articles.- Selected Publications of Heinz König.