Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

This practical guide to probability and statistics explains these concepts that underpin all professional estimating. Alan Jones considers what are called Measures of Central Tendency; Means, Modes and Medians, describing the differences, relevance and uses for each in the context of Estimating and the like.

Zusatztext 80567440 Informationen zum Autor Alan R. Jones is Principal Consultant at Estimata Limited, an estimating consultancy service. He is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (US) and Certified Cost Engineer (CCE) (UK). Prior to setting up his own business, he has enjoyed a 40-year career in the UK aerospace and defence industry as an estimator, culminating in the role of Chief Estimator at BAE Systems. Alan is a Fellow of the Association of Cost Engineers and a Member of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. Historically (some four decades ago), Alan was a graduate in Mathematics from Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was an MBA Prize-winner at the Henley Management College (. . . that was slightly more recent, being only two decades ago). Oh, how time flies when you are enjoying yourself. Zusammenfassung This practical guide to probability and statistics explains these concepts that underpin all professional estimating. Alan Jones considers what are called Measures of Central Tendency; Means, Modes and Medians, describing the differences, relevance and uses for each in the context of Estimating and the like. Inhaltsverzeichnis Volume II Table of Contents, 1 Introduction and Objectives, 1.1 Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why Five Volumes? 1.1.1 Why write this series? Who might find it useful? 1.1.2 Why Five Volumes? 1.2 Features you'll find in this book and others in this series, 1.2.1 Chapter Context, 1.2.2 The Lighter Side (humour), 1.2.3 Quotations, 1.2.4 Definitions, 1.2.5 Discussions and Explanations with a Mathematical Slant for Formula-philes, 1.2.6 Discussions and Explanations without a Mathematical Slant for Formula -phobes, 1.2.7 Caveat Augur, 1.2.8 Worked Examples, 1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel Functions and Facilities, 1.2.10 References to Authoritative Sources, 1.2.11 Chapter Reviews, 1.3 Overview of Chapters in this Volume, 1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' Series, 1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling, 1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and other Frightening Stuff, 1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines & Curves, and some Mathe-Magical Transformations, 1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves, 1.4.5 Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models, 1.5 Final Thoughts and Musings on this Volume and Series, References, 2 Measures of Central Tendency: Means, Modes, Medians, 2.1 'S' is for Shivers, Statistics and Spin, 2.1.1 Cutting through the Mumbo-Jumbo: What is or are Statistics? 2.1.2 Are there any types of Statistics that are not 'Descriptive'? 2.1.3 Samples, Populations and the Dreaded Statistical Bias, 2.2 Measures of Central Tendency, 2.2.1 What do we mean by 'Mean'? 2.2.2 Can we take the Average of an Average? 2.3 Arithmetic Mean - The Simple Average, 2.3.1 Properties of Arithmetic Means: A Potentially Unachievable Value! 2.3.2 Properties of Arithmetic Means: An Unbiased Representative Value of the Whole, 2.3.3 Why would we not want to use the Arithmetic Mean? 2.3.4 Is an Arithmetic Mean useful where there is an upward or downward trend? 2.3.5 Average of Averages: Can we take the Arithmetic Mean of an Arithmetic Mean? 2.4 Geometric Mean, 2.4.1 Basic Rules and Properties of a Geometric Mean, 2.4.2 When might we want to use a Geometric Mean? 2.4.3 Finding a steady state rate of growth or decay with a Geometric Mean, 2.4.4 Using a Geometric Mean as a Cross-Driver Comparator, 2.4.5 Using a Geometric Mean with Certain Non-Linear Regressions, 2.4.6 Average of Averages: Can we take the Geometric Mean of a Geometric Mean? 2.5 Harmonic Mean, 2.5.1 Surely Estimators would never use the Harmonic Mean? 2.5.2 Cases where the Harmonic Mean and the Arithmetic Mean are both inappropriate, 2.5.3 Average of Averages: Can we take the Harmonic Mean of a Harmonic Mean?, 2.6 Quadratic Mean: Root Me...

"In the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting Alan has managed to capture the full spectrum of relevant topics with simple explanations, practical examples and academic rigor, while injecting humour into the narrative." Dale Shermon, Chairman, Society of Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF). "If estimating has always baffled you, this innovative well illustrated and user friendly book will prove a revelation to its mysteries. To confidently forecast, minimise risk and reduce uncertainty we need full disclosure into the science and art of estimating. Thankfully, and at long last the "Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting" are exactly that, full of practical examples giving clarity, understanding and validity to the techniques. These are comprehensive step by step guides in understanding the principles of estimating using experientially based models to analyse the most appropriate, repeatable, transparent and credible outcomes. Each of the five volumes affords a valuable tool for both corporate reference and an outstanding practical resource for the teaching and training of this elusive and complex subject. I wish I had access to such a thorough reference when I started in this discipline over 15 years ago, I am looking forward to adding this to my library and using it with my team." - Tracey L Clavell, Head of Estimating & Pricing, BAE Systems Australia "At last, a comprehensive compendium on these engineering math subjects, essential to both the new and established "cost engineer"! As expected the subjects are presented with the author's usual wit and humour on complex and daunting "mathematically challenging" subjects. As a professional trainer within the MOD Cost Engineering community trying to embed this into my students, I will be recommending this series of books as essential bedtime reading." - Steve Baker, Senior Cost Engineer, DE&S MOD "Alan has been a highly regarded member of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession for several years. He is well known for an ability to reduce difficult topics and cost estimating methods down to something that is easily digested. As a master of this communication he would most often be found providing training across the cost estimating and forecasting tools and at all levels of expertise. With this 5-volume set, Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting, Alan has brought his normal verbal training method into a written form. Within their covers Alan steers away from the usual dry academic script into establishing an almost 1:1 relationship with the reader. For my money a recommendable read for all levels of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession and those who simply want to understand what is in the 'blackbox' just a bit more." - Prof Robert Mills, Margin Engineering, Birmingham City University. MACOSTE, SCAF, ICEAA. "Finally, a book to fill the gap in cost estimating and forecasting! Although other publications exist in this field, they tend to be light on detail whilst also failing to cover many of the essential aspects of estimating and forecasting. Jones covers all this and more from both a theoretical and practical point of view, regularly drawing on his considerable experience in the defence industry to provide many practical examples to support his comments. Heavily illustrated throughout, and often presented in a humorous fashion, this is a must read for those who want to understand the importance of cost estimating within the broader field of project management." - Dr Paul Blackwell, Lecturer in Management of Projects, The University of Manchester, UK. "Alan Jones provides a useful guidebook and navigation aid for those entering the field of estimating as well as an overview for mor…