Real Options for 450mm Semiconductor Wafer Foundries

American and European 450mm semiconductor wafer foundries are expected to produce billions of low cost, leading edge processors, memories, and sensors for many Internet of Everything applications. The problem has been a lack of wise investment decision making using traditional semiconductor industry models. Extended Black-Scholes Option Pricing models were applied to compare four real options to optimize production capacity, to defer the EUV lithography investment, and to abandon the project. Predication models using response surface methods are demonstrated. Moore's second law was applied to find the theoretical turn-key cost and real option game theories were applied to predict marketing supply strategies. Next generation 450mm semiconductor foundries are expected to supply billions of processors, memories, and wireless RF sensors for the global Internet of Everything which is expected to exceed $14 Trillion by 2020. Semiconductor applications for Big Data analytics, smart cities, smart grids, smart infrastructures, self-driving vehicles, smart homes, autonomous robots, novel medical electronics, wearable electronics, and digital wallets for cashless societies are discussed.

Autorentext

Dr. Pastore is currently an engineer-scientist at Boeing Research and Technology. He had worked on Thailand s first 8-inch semiconductor wafer foundry at Alphatec SubMicron Technology. Previously, he was an engineer at Infineon Technologies, Siemens Microelectronics, Xerox, and Hewlett Packard. He is a member of the IEEE Electron Device Society.