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Reference Class Forecasting
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Geliefert zwischen Fr., 30.01.2026 und Mo., 02.02.2026
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High Quality Content by WIKIPEDIA articles! Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They helped Kahneman win the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics. Kahneman and Tversky (1979a, b) found that human judgment is generally optimistic due to overconfidence and insufficient consideration of distributional information about outcomes. Therefore, people tend to underestimate the costs, completion times, and risks of planned actions, whereas they tend to overestimate the benefits of those same actions. Such error is caused by actors taking an "inside view," where focus is on the constituents of the specific planned action instead of on the actual outcomes of similar ventures that have already been completed.
Weitere Informationen
- Allgemeine Informationen
- GTIN 09786130493264
- Editor Lambert M. Surhone, Miriam T. Timpledon, Susan F. Marseken
- EAN 9786130493264
- Format Fachbuch
- Titel Reference Class Forecasting
- Herausgeber Betascript Publishing
- Anzahl Seiten 72
- Genre Wirtschaft
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