Survival Analysis in Epidemiology

In the Republic of Congo, long-term survival of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a public health concern. The objective of our study was to analyze the long-term survival of people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART. We conducted a historical cohort study that included 2309 PLHIV on ART between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2017. These were adult PLHIV whose viral load and date of initiation of ART were known. The Kaplan Meier method was used to describe the probability of survival and the Cox regression model to identify prognostic factors associated with death. The median age of the patients was 49 years. Female gender was predominant with 68.56%. The overall retention at 14 years was 4% and the probability of survival was 83% under the baseline scenario. In contrast, under the worst-case scenario (if those lost to follow-up died), survival was 66%. Male sex, HR= 1.65 IC95% [1.25-2.17]; advanced WHO clinical disease stage: HR= 3.21 IC95% [2.86-3.6] and viral load> 1000 copies/ml, HR=2.5 IC95% [1.8-3.2] were significantly associated with death (p-value<0.0001).

Autorentext

Arkadit Jeandria NKODIA es investigador y epidemiólogo. Ha trabajado en las instituciones del Ministerio de Sanidad, en ONG de salud pública, en empresas de investigación, en el Comité del Fondo Mundial, en organizaciones internacionales como la OMS AFRO, la OMS Congo, el PMA y ha publicado varios artículos científicos.