The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context

Dating business cycle turning points is still an important task for economic policy decisions. This study does this for the Austrian economy for the period between 1976 and 2005, using only quarterly national accounts data of Austria, Germany and the euro area. Three different filtering methods are applied: first-order differences, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and the Baxter-King filter. To all of them, two different methods of determining the business cycle are applied: the ad-hoc determination of the business cycle and a dynamic factor model, taking into account the common variations of Austria, the euro area and the German business cycle movements. The results of both methods are dated by the Bry-Boschan algorithm in order to locate peaks and troughs of the cycle. The results are interpreted and compared to already exiting studies on the euro area and the Austrian business cycle.

Autorentext

The Author: Marcus Scheiblecker, born in 1967, studied Economics at the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration. After working for the Austrian Statistical Office he joined the research staff of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) in 1998. His current fields of research cover the analysis of international and national economic developments, short-term economic forecasting, business cycle analysis and quarterly national accounts issues. He is lecturer of international economics at the University of Applied Studies in Vienna since 2000.

Inhalt

Contents: Survey of robustness of different business cycle analysis methods - Determination of business cycle turning points for Austria, Germany, and the euro area.