Time Series: An Applied Study

To ensure competitive differentials, meeting estimated customer service levels, and better management of stocked items, contemporary organizations apply demand forecasting methods that take into account historical data for future short- and medium-term planning. The objective of this study consisted in an applied analysis of demand forecast tools at a retail foodstuff unit. To define the methodology with best adherence in the case study, one initially used the selection of items for the study. To define the items that belong to the basic food basket, the ABC curve method calculations were conducted with the help of the Microsoft Excel tool, as per table 5, whereby the variables price, quantity sold, cost of goods sold and profitability were utilized. The historical data of this study was extracted by the supermarket ERP software called FDC Market. Based on the data obtained during the research it can be concluded that the weighted moving average methodology obtained satisfactory results with lower absolute error averages.

Autorentext

Josinaldo Dias é Doutor em Engenharia e Ciência dos Materiais, Mestre em Engenharia de Produção e Professor associado ao Departamento de Engenharia de Produção.