Time Series Forecast of Road Accidents in Oyo State

Transportation plays an important role in the day to day activities of human race. Road transportation is the most common means of movement in Oyo State and this has raise the likelihood of the occurrence of road traffic accident even posing a serious problem that needs serious attention. Road traffic accidents would Continually increase if tangible efforts are not made to tackle is problem. This study uses time frequency domain approach to model the occurrence of road traffic accidents in Oyo State and predict the future occurrence of road accidents. Annual road accidents data in the State from 2006 to 2020 were observed. It contains accident types, accident causes and vehicle types. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and Phillip Perron Test were employed in the analysis. Serious accident types is the highest among the accident types, private cars accident is the highest among the vehicle types and excessive speed is the highest among the accident causes. ARIMA model (1, 1, 0) and (1, 1, 1) is best used to model accidents in the state. The result revealed that there would be an increase in the occurrence of road traffic accident in year 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Autorentext
Oladapo Oladoja is currently a Statistics lecturer at the Abiola Ajimobi Technical University.Sururat Adebayo is an alumnus of Abiola Ajimobi Technical University.